One of our favorite quotes that we constantly remind ourselves of comes from Benjamin Graham – “In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine.” What this means is that in the long run, the stock prices will reflect what a stock is worth but in the short run, it can be pretty much over or under priced based on the market sentiment.
The price of a stock at any point in time, is nothing but a result of the collective opinion of the market participants in the stock market which is constantly in a complex, dynamic process of chaos. Cause and effect doesn’t happen in a linear fashion and for the most part, the interplay of several causes results in a particular event.
Yet, any particular price movement is often attributed to just one or a few reasons. The financial media knows that our brains love to be able to make sense out of things as quickly as possible. We often (always) see headlines like: ‘The market fell by 3% because of X’ or ‘The stock rose by 2% because of Y and Z’.
Most of the time, the financial media are simply finding justifications to why the price moved. In hindsight, it looks easy to explain why a market or stock moved in a particular direction because of the given reasons. Here is one example we shared before with our community.
As an investor, you only need to know that the most important thing that affects the stock price in the long term is the earnings power. Your job is simply to possess the ability to assess if a company is able to remain fundamentally sound and not to be able to explain the daily or weekly gyrations of the stock prices which no one has control over. Refrain from having the temptation to want to find out or explain why prices go up or down. The time that you spend doing so could be much better spent in for example, performing technical analysis to understand the buying and selling pressure of the market if the stock is overbought or oversold.